Kerala Braces for Early Summer as Monsoon Deficit Widens

The skies over Kerala have been unusually quiet this monsoon, and the silence is beginning to worry experts. After three months of the southwest monsoon season, the state is grappling with a 22% rainfall deficit—a shortfall that’s only expected to deepen as September unfolds.

A Drying Landscape

From June 1 to September 1, Kerala received just 1,368 mm of rainfall against a normal of 1,759 mm. The India Meteorological Department’s monthly outlook offers little comfort: below-normal rainfall is forecast for September, meaning the deficit will likely widen further. Private forecaster Skymet had already downgraded its national monsoon forecast to drought, projecting seasonal rainfall at just 85% of the long-term average.

Critical Districts Under Stress

The situation turns particularly alarming in Wayanad and Idukki, where rainfall deficits have reached 51% and 44% respectively. These aren’t just numbers on a weather chart—both districts account for a major share of Kerala’s power-generating reservoirs. The prolonged dry spell raises real concerns about water availability and power generation in the coming months.

“Given the prevailing atmospheric conditions, there is little scope for a significant revival of rainfall activity across the State in September, barring isolated light showers in some pockets,” said Neetha K. Gopal, Director of IMD Thiruvananthapuram.

Why the Rains Stayed Away

Kerala typically gets its monsoon boost from reinforced westerly winds along the coast, triggered by weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. An active offshore trough along the West Coast can unleash heavy rainfall, especially over the Western Ghats. This year, however, none of these rain-enhancing factors have materialized properly.

The strengthening El Niño and weak Indian Ocean Dipole—both known to suppress monsoon activity—may also affect the forthcoming northeast monsoon. Though it’s too early for definitive assessments, the patterns don’t look promising.

What Comes Next

Conditions are becoming favorable for the southwest monsoon to begin withdrawing from Rajasthan and adjoining areas. Southern Kerala might still see isolated heavy showers during the retreating phase if weather systems develop over the Bay of Bengal. But for now, the state watches the skies, hoping for relief that forecasters say may not arrive.