China Pushes Ahead With Brahmaputra Mega Dam Despite Fresh Flood Fears

Beijing is showing no signs of second thoughts. Even as the devastation from the recent glacial collapse along the Nepal-China border stirs fresh anxiety, China is pressing ahead with a mega dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo — the river that flows into India as the Brahmaputra — in a seismically active stretch of Tibet close to the Indian border.

The 'project of the century' gathers pace

At a groundbreaking ceremony in July 2025, Premier Li Qiang travelled to Nyingchi to launch what he called "the project of the century." This April, Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing made the same journey, inspecting the newly formed State-run China Yajiang Group, which will run the entire project.

"We must shoulder the principal responsibility for project-building and build this landmark mega project of the new era," Mr. Zhang was quoted as saying, pledging to "put quality first, safety as the foundation" and keep "construction progress subordinate to quality and safety."

The timeline is hard to ignore: the Five-Year Plan landed on July 23 — a month before the August 26 flash flood and mudslides that have now sharpened questions about building on such fragile terrain.

How the dam would work

Though billed as a "run-of-the-river" project, it will include a reservoir, most likely at Mainling, upstream of Nyingchi, according to an analysis published Wednesday by Shanghai-based energy analyst David Fishman. Water will be diverted at the top of the "great bend" into a roughly 40-km tunnel, its descending force driving five 12-GW powerhouses before rejoining the river, Mr. Fishman wrote on his Substack, "Crossing the River."

The existing Zangmu dam on the middle reaches offers a glimpse of Beijing's ambitions. It passed a "final acceptance meeting" in June — after construction began in 2010 — having generated 22.2 billion kilowatt-hours, and State media say it has "provided a solution to nearly 26 percent of electricity demand" in Tibet.

Why India is watching warily

New Delhi's concerns are specific: how much water the reservoir will store, how the tunnel will reshape downstream flows, and the wider ecological fallout. The lack of public information has made any rigorous assessment difficult — and hydrological data sharing, officials say, has been irregular, even suspended during difficult periods in relations.

Beijing rejects the worries. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said last year that China "always maintained a highly responsible attitude toward transboundary river development" and that the project "will not have adverse effects on downstream areas." Whether that assurance satisfies downstream neighbours may become clearer at this month's Expert-Level Mechanism meeting.

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